Comments on: There is No “Plan B”

By: Mike Lorrey

Mike Lorrey — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 22:11:10 +0000

googaw,
Compared to Lunar orbit, GEO is relatively low, however we’re not talking about unmanned spaceflight, this is about putting ~~men~~ people out there.

By: googaw

googaw — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 16:15:58 +0000

I agree with Trent that private space, with the right infrastructure, will be able to get beyond LEO before NASA decides to.

Back in this galaxy, private space has been beyond LEO since the 1960s.

By: Trent Waddington

Trent Waddington — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 10:35:30 +0000

White House appointee Morrie Goodman, Assistant Administrator for Public Affairs at NASA has been dismissed.

By: Josh Cryer

Josh Cryer — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 08:17:44 +0000

Brad, I expect us to leave LEO before 2025. I believe we will go into lunar orbit, under the new plan, by 2022. I think that is a very reasonable time frame. I expect us to make a moon landing or an NEO landing by about 2026. And a Mars orbit by 2030. Followed up shortly by a full on Mars landing by the early 2030s, say, 2034. This is what NASA [i]can[/i] do if it is allowed to progress, I think they’re very reasonable time frames. I think that they can even be sped up if private space is allowed to flourish, and it will, it will just take time. Technological progress is exponential, it’s just that space has not received much attention as far as manned flight goes.

Under Cx we weren’t getting to Mars until the late 2030s, more likely 2040s or even 2050s if anyone died on the moon or if Ares I blew up. We would not have developed ISRU on the moon or for a Mars trip. We would not have even explored space manufacturing technology. We would not have developed advanced robotics. We’d have just been building two rockets and a few modules to plop on the moon at a very very great expense.

Note that the time line I put forth applies to SpaceX and other venturists who want to get out there, but have had too high of a risk until the government decided to help them out and speed things up (COTS). I agree with Trent that private space, with the right infrastructure, will be able to get beyond LEO before NASA decides to. Whether private space does or not, that’s anyones guess. Something tells me that NASA will want to be first, if only to hitch a ride on private space to do it. ie, if Elon says in 2015 that he’s sending guys to the moon in 5 years (from that future date) you can bet that NASA will sit back and say “we’re going in 4 years, on Elon’s ship.”

That’s really the beauty of the new plan, imo. It forces NASA to compete with itself. To be better.

By: Trent Waddington

Trent Waddington — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 01:13:28 +0000

I have a system to win at blackjack.

I bet the minimum and play like a madman. This causes the old Asian ladies at the table to go *nuts*. “You stupid!! Why you ask for another card? Now we all lose!” It’s *hours* of cheap entertainment, and the drinks are free.

By: Marcel F. Williams

Marcel F. Williams — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 00:12:25 +0000

“Ah, I think we have had a slight failure in communication. I don’t want to know the earliest something *could* fly beyond LEO. I want to know when *you* expect the first NASA manned mission beyond LEO?”

And that is the fundamental question. When do we start building something to actually go some place! And why do we want to do it?

By: Mike Lorrey

Mike Lorrey — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 22:28:45 +0000

The assumption that only intelligent people would want to go to the moon is elitist, Kirk. Secondly, while the odds of self reward via lotto are miniscule with returns on risk averaging 0.15 with typical state lottos that fund education, the fact is that the funds the state earns go to funding education, typically, rather into state general funds.

How many intelligent people still smoke cigarettes or drink alcohol? Lots. Many smart people think they can beat the casino in Vegas, that they “have a system” to win at blackjack, or can outwit opponents at poker. Many intelligent people get conned into all sorts of things: sub prime mortgages, scientology, UFO cults, anthropogenic global warming…

That said, a lunar lotto would benefit the winner 100%, since revenues would go to developing/building the vehicles and technologies needed to get the winner there.

By: Trent Waddington

Trent Waddington — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 22:02:52 +0000

Oh, well, my expectation is that NASA will take too long to get there, a new election cycle will happen and the next administration will come up with yet another plan… mix and repeat.

In other words, SpaceX is probably going beyond LEO before NASA is.

By: Brad

Brad — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 13:29:26 +0000

Trent

Ah, I think we have had a slight failure in communication. I don’t want to know the earliest something *could* fly beyond LEO. I want to know when *you* expect the first NASA manned mission beyond LEO?

By: Trent Waddington

Trent Waddington — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 11:11:28 +0000

Brad, the budget documents say the first technology demonstration mission is to fly no later than 2014, you know that’s gunna slip to at least 2015. At this point in time we have no idea what that mission will be.. it could be a demonstration of VASIMR on the ISS (honestly, that’s my bet right now).. so when you asked what is the earliest something *could* fly beyond LEO I gave you what I think is the most optimistic answer, but anyone who knows me would know not to describe me as “optimistic”.