There is No “Plan B”
Mar 5th, 2010 by Kirk Sorensen
From NASA administrator Charlie Bolden:
“I find great comfort in knowing that President Obama has seen fit to put his faith in us to develop a game-changing strategy in our four mission areas, and that he has given us a $6 billion plus up on our FY10 budget as a show of support and trust. I fully believe in the plan that this budget has allowed us to set out for NASA’s road ahead, and unlike many of our detractors, I do believe it will very likely allow us to reach exploration destinations sooner and more efficiently than we would have been able to while we were struggling to develop the Constellation Program.”
I completely agree with this statement.
It only takes 3 days to get to the Moon. How much faster do we want to get there?
Marcel, ok, GO!
I like the idea of space tugs.. let humans get there in the 3 days but send the habitat/rover on the tug and land it autonomously. Technological advancement should allow a much more robust system later. Going to be “fun” to watch what will happen…all the politics not included of course…
jb
With MXER tethers, you can send payload or crew to the Moon quickly at “infinite” Isp!
@Trent Waddington
“Marcel, ok, GO!”
And I have an excellent way to fund it: a Lunar Lotto!
http://newpapyrusmagazine.blogspot.com/1999/01/space-commercialization-and-lunar-lotto.html
Oh, 3.5 hrs, constant 1G boost with a mid-course skew-flip would be OK. Who wants to spend three DAYS just getting there?
Lunar Lotto won’t work. Most of your potential players have had probability and statistics classes and know how stupid a lotto is. You need to rely on a huge pool of innumerate people to make lotteries work.
There is now discretionary funding in the budget that can actually be used to research and develop interesting technologies. The NASA administrator is no longer just a jobs program manager – a job I doubt anyone would have wanted.
@Kirk Sorensen
Well you only have a pool of hundreds of millions of adults in the US with at least 40% of the US population saying that they would jump at the chance to fly into space. And for the rest of the planet, you have a pool of billions of people. Add to that, a cash prize of $200,000 if you win a ticket, then there would be plenty of incentives for people around the world to participate in an American Space Lotto system.
But maybe you wouldn’t be willing to risk a dollar for a chance to fly to a space station or to go to the Moon. But I’m pretty sure that many others would!
Here’s a poll of what some folks thought of the idea:
http://www.dailykos.com/user/newpapyrus
Marcel, do you only have one opinion or what?
“Marcel, do you only have one opinion or what?”
I think an individual can only have his or her own opinion:-)
But as far as the US space program is concerned, I think its obvious that we need a strong government manned space program and a strong private commercial manned space program. They are not mutually exclusive of each other. In fact, they are complimentary!
Marcel F. Williams, before the late 2020s early 2030s that’s for damn sure. Yaknow, the getting out of LEO before Cx would have done it under the 2010 budget (ie, a realistic budget in these trying times).
Serious question to supporters of the new Obama/Bolden plan. When do you expect under this new plan, the first NASA manned mission beyond LEO?
A specific date or a range of dates will suffice for an answer. Any type of NASA manned mission, a test mission, an exploration mission, whatever will do, as long as it is exceeds, say, an apogee of 1,000 km.
(And even though it shouldn’t be necessary for me to add, I note that I am not a supporter of Constellation, nor have I ever been a supporter)
Brad, probably no earlier than 2015. For example, a technology demonstration of propellant transfer would have the most impact if it went beyond LEO as it would finally lay to rest the debate over whether or not you *need* a heavy lift launcher. A trip to L1 to emplace a permanent propellant depot for onward exploration of the solar system would be my choice.
Trent
Can you narrow it down for me any more? Or can I assume 2015 is your answer?
Sad to say, unless I am badly misunderstanding the Bolden plan, HLV is integral to NASA planning and spending. Billions of NASA money is now budgeted to technology R&D for HLV application over the next five years. Bolden has said that HLV is necessary and he hopes the first one will fly between 2020 and 2030.
Brad, the budget documents say the first technology demonstration mission is to fly no later than 2014, you know that’s gunna slip to at least 2015. At this point in time we have no idea what that mission will be.. it could be a demonstration of VASIMR on the ISS (honestly, that’s my bet right now).. so when you asked what is the earliest something *could* fly beyond LEO I gave you what I think is the most optimistic answer, but anyone who knows me would know not to describe me as “optimistic”.
Trent
Ah, I think we have had a slight failure in communication. I don’t want to know the earliest something *could* fly beyond LEO. I want to know when *you* expect the first NASA manned mission beyond LEO?
Oh, well, my expectation is that NASA will take too long to get there, a new election cycle will happen and the next administration will come up with yet another plan… mix and repeat.
In other words, SpaceX is probably going beyond LEO before NASA is.
The assumption that only intelligent people would want to go to the moon is elitist, Kirk. Secondly, while the odds of self reward via lotto are miniscule with returns on risk averaging 0.15 with typical state lottos that fund education, the fact is that the funds the state earns go to funding education, typically, rather into state general funds.
How many intelligent people still smoke cigarettes or drink alcohol? Lots. Many smart people think they can beat the casino in Vegas, that they “have a system” to win at blackjack, or can outwit opponents at poker. Many intelligent people get conned into all sorts of things: sub prime mortgages, scientology, UFO cults, anthropogenic global warming…
That said, a lunar lotto would benefit the winner 100%, since revenues would go to developing/building the vehicles and technologies needed to get the winner there.
“Ah, I think we have had a slight failure in communication. I don’t want to know the earliest something *could* fly beyond LEO. I want to know when *you* expect the first NASA manned mission beyond LEO?”
And that is the fundamental question. When do we start building something to actually go some place! And why do we want to do it?
I have a system to win at blackjack.
I bet the minimum and play like a madman. This causes the old Asian ladies at the table to go *nuts*. “You stupid!! Why you ask for another card? Now we all lose!” It’s *hours* of cheap entertainment, and the drinks are free.
Brad, I expect us to leave LEO before 2025. I believe we will go into lunar orbit, under the new plan, by 2022. I think that is a very reasonable time frame. I expect us to make a moon landing or an NEO landing by about 2026. And a Mars orbit by 2030. Followed up shortly by a full on Mars landing by the early 2030s, say, 2034. This is what NASA [i]can[/i] do if it is allowed to progress, I think they’re very reasonable time frames. I think that they can even be sped up if private space is allowed to flourish, and it will, it will just take time. Technological progress is exponential, it’s just that space has not received much attention as far as manned flight goes.
Under Cx we weren’t getting to Mars until the late 2030s, more likely 2040s or even 2050s if anyone died on the moon or if Ares I blew up. We would not have developed ISRU on the moon or for a Mars trip. We would not have even explored space manufacturing technology. We would not have developed advanced robotics. We’d have just been building two rockets and a few modules to plop on the moon at a very very great expense.
Note that the time line I put forth applies to SpaceX and other venturists who want to get out there, but have had too high of a risk until the government decided to help them out and speed things up (COTS). I agree with Trent that private space, with the right infrastructure, will be able to get beyond LEO before NASA decides to. Whether private space does or not, that’s anyones guess. Something tells me that NASA will want to be first, if only to hitch a ride on private space to do it. ie, if Elon says in 2015 that he’s sending guys to the moon in 5 years (from that future date) you can bet that NASA will sit back and say “we’re going in 4 years, on Elon’s ship.”
That’s really the beauty of the new plan, imo. It forces NASA to compete with itself. To be better.
White House appointee Morrie Goodman, Assistant Administrator for Public Affairs at NASA has been dismissed.
I agree with Trent that private space, with the right infrastructure, will be able to get beyond LEO before NASA decides to.
Back in this galaxy, private space has been beyond LEO since the 1960s.
googaw,
Compared to Lunar orbit, GEO is relatively low, however we’re not talking about unmanned spaceflight, this is about putting
menpeople out there.