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	<title>Comments on: VSE Apathy Woes</title>
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	<link>http://selenianboondocks.com/2006/12/vse-apathy-woes/</link>
	<description>Random Musings from the Warped Minds of Jonathan Goff, Ken Murphy, John Hare, and Kirk Sorensen</description>
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		<title>By: Kirk</title>
		<link>http://selenianboondocks.com/2006/12/vse-apathy-woes/comment-page-1/#comment-1757</link>
		<dc:creator>Kirk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Jan 2007 02:17:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://selenianboondocks.com/?p=331#comment-1757</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Kirk; what you are really talking about are the problems regarding energy transmission (and more precisely microwave beams) through the atmosphere, isn&#039;t it? It doesn&#039;t really have anything to do with launch costs or structures or anything except the properties of the atmosphere and how good it is at weakening all kinds of radiation right? (And lucky us that it is I might add). If so I agree but I still wouldn&#039;t rule out that the future might hold work-arounds: there&#039;s still so much we don&#039;t know.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;No, actually what I&#039;m saying is, given a transmission frequency and a distance between a transmitter and receiver, there is a relationship is the sheer size of the transmitter and the size of the receiver necessary to transmit power at a given efficiency.  One of the things that shocked me about SSP was discovering that for a given frequency, distance, and efficiency, the size of the transmitter and the size of the receiver is independent of power transmitted.  In other words, you have to build a huge transmitter and a 10km rectenna whether you&#039;re transmitting a milliwatt or a gigawatt.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;That kind of unfavorable scaling means that subscale SSPs will either suffer from horrible inefficiencies or require full-scale transmisssion and reception apparatuses.  It is that difficulty in earning the first bit of revenue from SSP that was one of the huge economic drawbacks in the model.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Kirk; what you are really talking about are the problems regarding energy transmission (and more precisely microwave beams) through the atmosphere, isn&#8217;t it? It doesn&#8217;t really have anything to do with launch costs or structures or anything except the properties of the atmosphere and how good it is at weakening all kinds of radiation right? (And lucky us that it is I might add). If so I agree but I still wouldn&#8217;t rule out that the future might hold work-arounds: there&#8217;s still so much we don&#8217;t know.</i></p>
<p>No, actually what I&#8217;m saying is, given a transmission frequency and a distance between a transmitter and receiver, there is a relationship is the sheer size of the transmitter and the size of the receiver necessary to transmit power at a given efficiency.  One of the things that shocked me about SSP was discovering that for a given frequency, distance, and efficiency, the size of the transmitter and the size of the receiver is independent of power transmitted.  In other words, you have to build a huge transmitter and a 10km rectenna whether you&#8217;re transmitting a milliwatt or a gigawatt.</p>
<p>That kind of unfavorable scaling means that subscale SSPs will either suffer from horrible inefficiencies or require full-scale transmisssion and reception apparatuses.  It is that difficulty in earning the first bit of revenue from SSP that was one of the huge economic drawbacks in the model.</p>
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		<title>By: Habitat Hermit</title>
		<link>http://selenianboondocks.com/2006/12/vse-apathy-woes/comment-page-1/#comment-1754</link>
		<dc:creator>Habitat Hermit</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jan 2007 22:55:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://selenianboondocks.com/?p=331#comment-1754</guid>
		<description>Nasa &amp; youth:&lt;br /&gt;Should we even care? I&#039;m above 30 and believe an increasing human space presence is incredibly important, but Nasa? No not really... *bites tongue*.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In-space solar power for Earth consumption:&lt;br /&gt;As I&#039;ve said in another comment somewhere I don&#039;t see Earth as the primary market but... saying it&#039;s impossible as in forever un-economic even with zero launch costs?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Kirk; what you are really talking about are the problems regarding energy transmission (and more precisely microwave beams) through the atmosphere, isn&#039;t it? It doesn&#039;t really have anything to do with launch costs or structures or anything except the properties of the atmosphere and how good it is at weakening all kinds of radiation right? (And lucky us that it is I might add). If so I agree but I still wouldn&#039;t rule out that the future might hold work-arounds: there&#039;s still so much we don&#039;t know.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nasa &#038; youth:<br />Should we even care? I&#8217;m above 30 and believe an increasing human space presence is incredibly important, but Nasa? No not really&#8230; *bites tongue*.</p>
<p>In-space solar power for Earth consumption:<br />As I&#8217;ve said in another comment somewhere I don&#8217;t see Earth as the primary market but&#8230; saying it&#8217;s impossible as in forever un-economic even with zero launch costs?</p>
<p>Kirk; what you are really talking about are the problems regarding energy transmission (and more precisely microwave beams) through the atmosphere, isn&#8217;t it? It doesn&#8217;t really have anything to do with launch costs or structures or anything except the properties of the atmosphere and how good it is at weakening all kinds of radiation right? (And lucky us that it is I might add). If so I agree but I still wouldn&#8217;t rule out that the future might hold work-arounds: there&#8217;s still so much we don&#8217;t know.</p>
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		<title>By: Kirk</title>
		<link>http://selenianboondocks.com/2006/12/vse-apathy-woes/comment-page-1/#comment-1739</link>
		<dc:creator>Kirk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jan 2007 17:33:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://selenianboondocks.com/?p=331#comment-1739</guid>
		<description>kert,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I don&#039;t see anything in that concept that addresses the basic problems of SSP--still a big transmitter and a big receiver...and there in the middle of the paper is the LV we were working on at Georgia Tech.  The very model I told you didn&#039;t close.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>kert,</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t see anything in that concept that addresses the basic problems of SSP&#8211;still a big transmitter and a big receiver&#8230;and there in the middle of the paper is the LV we were working on at Georgia Tech.  The very model I told you didn&#8217;t close.</p>
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		<title>By: kert</title>
		<link>http://selenianboondocks.com/2006/12/vse-apathy-woes/comment-page-1/#comment-1738</link>
		<dc:creator>kert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jan 2007 09:04:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://selenianboondocks.com/?p=331#comment-1738</guid>
		<description>Kirk, if you only analyzed &quot;large structures&quot; approaches for SSP, you didnt do half of the work. Look up Mitsubishi Electric&#039;s SolarBird concept for istance.&lt;br /&gt;Or this one:&lt;br /&gt;http://www.powersat.com/white_papers.html&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;There are couple of critical tech hurdles in the &quot;large solar sat&quot; concept. Beamed power through atmosphere, large assembled structures in space are the obvious ones. Take out one of these with some out of the box thinking and you remove the constraints that make the game unwinnable.&lt;br /&gt;BTW, there are other applications to beamed power than getting suns energy down to earth, so a incremental approach utilizing this tech is possible.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kirk, if you only analyzed &#8220;large structures&#8221; approaches for SSP, you didnt do half of the work. Look up Mitsubishi Electric&#8217;s SolarBird concept for istance.<br />Or this one:<br /><a href="http://www.powersat.com/white_papers.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.powersat.com/white_papers.html</a></p>
<p>There are couple of critical tech hurdles in the &#8220;large solar sat&#8221; concept. Beamed power through atmosphere, large assembled structures in space are the obvious ones. Take out one of these with some out of the box thinking and you remove the constraints that make the game unwinnable.<br />BTW, there are other applications to beamed power than getting suns energy down to earth, so a incremental approach utilizing this tech is possible.</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Puckett</title>
		<link>http://selenianboondocks.com/2006/12/vse-apathy-woes/comment-page-1/#comment-1735</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Puckett</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Dec 2006 21:48:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://selenianboondocks.com/?p=331#comment-1735</guid>
		<description>You people are way over-analyzing this.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;So most late teens twentysomethings don&#039;t seem very interested in space.  It was this way 20 yeas ago too.  Water is still wet and the sky is still blue.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;People in this demoraphic are interested in going to college, getting laid, getting wasted etc, etc.  In othr words, they are still self-absorbed same as every post WWII generation. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Its called being a young adult and its nothing new.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Fortunately, it isn&#039;t fatal for the most part to either them or NASA.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;They may be too lazy to care enought to support the VSE but they are also too lazy to care enough to kill it.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Occam&#039;s Razor is a wonderful thing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You people are way over-analyzing this.</p>
<p>So most late teens twentysomethings don&#8217;t seem very interested in space.  It was this way 20 yeas ago too.  Water is still wet and the sky is still blue.</p>
<p>People in this demoraphic are interested in going to college, getting laid, getting wasted etc, etc.  In othr words, they are still self-absorbed same as every post WWII generation. </p>
<p>Its called being a young adult and its nothing new.</p>
<p>Fortunately, it isn&#8217;t fatal for the most part to either them or NASA.</p>
<p>They may be too lazy to care enought to support the VSE but they are also too lazy to care enough to kill it.</p>
<p>Occam&#8217;s Razor is a wonderful thing.</p>
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		<title>By: Karl Hallowell</title>
		<link>http://selenianboondocks.com/2006/12/vse-apathy-woes/comment-page-1/#comment-1734</link>
		<dc:creator>Karl Hallowell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Dec 2006 09:57:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://selenianboondocks.com/?p=331#comment-1734</guid>
		<description>Hmmm, the space mirrors approach sounds intriguing. You could use them to illuminate night time crops or solar cells. Or even to light up an urban area. Such a system might be able to eliminate most needs for outdoor lighting. I don&#039;t know if there&#039;s a business case there though since the area to be illuminated has to be large.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hmmm, the space mirrors approach sounds intriguing. You could use them to illuminate night time crops or solar cells. Or even to light up an urban area. Such a system might be able to eliminate most needs for outdoor lighting. I don&#8217;t know if there&#8217;s a business case there though since the area to be illuminated has to be large.</p>
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		<title>By: Kirk</title>
		<link>http://selenianboondocks.com/2006/12/vse-apathy-woes/comment-page-1/#comment-1729</link>
		<dc:creator>Kirk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Dec 2006 01:06:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://selenianboondocks.com/?p=331#comment-1729</guid>
		<description>Believe me, Jon, I went into the whole thing a big proponent and advocate of space solar power, but after working the problem and the modeling, I did a 180 and have been opposed ever since.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Every assumption that could possibly be favorable to SSP was assumed, and then some (like free launch).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The structures are just too big and the transmission system too complex and lossy.  Everything adds up and you can&#039;t make money.  Take a look at this:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;http://entropyproduction.blogspot.com/2006/07/solar-power-satellite.html&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The failure of SSP and fusion to hold up to scrutiny is one of the reasons I took another look at fission and discovered the potential of thorium and the fluoride reactor...but that doesn&#039;t require a space program.  :-(</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Believe me, Jon, I went into the whole thing a big proponent and advocate of space solar power, but after working the problem and the modeling, I did a 180 and have been opposed ever since.</p>
<p>Every assumption that could possibly be favorable to SSP was assumed, and then some (like free launch).</p>
<p>The structures are just too big and the transmission system too complex and lossy.  Everything adds up and you can&#8217;t make money.  Take a look at this:</p>
<p><a href="http://entropyproduction.blogspot.com/2006/07/solar-power-satellite.html" rel="nofollow">http://entropyproduction.blogspot.com/2006/07/solar-power-satellite.html</a></p>
<p>The failure of SSP and fusion to hold up to scrutiny is one of the reasons I took another look at fission and discovered the potential of thorium and the fluoride reactor&#8230;but that doesn&#8217;t require a space program.  <img src='http://selenianboondocks.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_sad.gif' alt=':-(' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Pete</title>
		<link>http://selenianboondocks.com/2006/12/vse-apathy-woes/comment-page-1/#comment-1727</link>
		<dc:creator>Pete</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Dec 2006 00:46:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://selenianboondocks.com/?p=331#comment-1727</guid>
		<description>My best guess is that the market to go for is small inflatable condominiums in LEO. This would give people a place to stay while in space, whether they are wealthy individuals on holiday or engineers working on satellites, scientists, in the construction industry, or whatever. Having a place to stay would allow people to initiate start-ups in space, having people in space creates a market for CATS. From what I can see a trailer park in LEO seems to be the critical path, get that and everything else follows. A few hundred million might be sufficient for this - it needs far more of a smaller modular mass produced focus than Bigelow has currently given it. This general approach is I think something that can be sold to the younger generations - it offers them the hope of direct participation in a modern commercial context.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My best guess is that the market to go for is small inflatable condominiums in LEO. This would give people a place to stay while in space, whether they are wealthy individuals on holiday or engineers working on satellites, scientists, in the construction industry, or whatever. Having a place to stay would allow people to initiate start-ups in space, having people in space creates a market for CATS. From what I can see a trailer park in LEO seems to be the critical path, get that and everything else follows. A few hundred million might be sufficient for this &#8211; it needs far more of a smaller modular mass produced focus than Bigelow has currently given it. This general approach is I think something that can be sold to the younger generations &#8211; it offers them the hope of direct participation in a modern commercial context.</p>
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		<title>By: Jon Goff</title>
		<link>http://selenianboondocks.com/2006/12/vse-apathy-woes/comment-page-1/#comment-1726</link>
		<dc:creator>Jon Goff</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Dec 2006 00:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://selenianboondocks.com/?p=331#comment-1726</guid>
		<description>Kirk,&lt;br /&gt;That&#039;s really weird.  I&#039;d like to see the assumptions that went into that model.  Mostly because I&#039;ve heard of a lot of other studies who did get their cases to close once you have sufficiently cheap transport from earth and/or lunar materials.  Also, was that business case starting from right now and assuming you had to wait a long time to develop the transportation systems, etc?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I&#039;m personally a bit skeptical of the near to medium term viability of space solar power, but hearing &quot;it&#039;s impossible to make the case close&quot; makes me suspicious about the underlying assumptions.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;~Jon</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kirk,<br />That&#8217;s really weird.  I&#8217;d like to see the assumptions that went into that model.  Mostly because I&#8217;ve heard of a lot of other studies who did get their cases to close once you have sufficiently cheap transport from earth and/or lunar materials.  Also, was that business case starting from right now and assuming you had to wait a long time to develop the transportation systems, etc?</p>
<p>I&#8217;m personally a bit skeptical of the near to medium term viability of space solar power, but hearing &#8220;it&#8217;s impossible to make the case close&#8221; makes me suspicious about the underlying assumptions.</p>
<p>~Jon</p>
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		<title>By: Kirk</title>
		<link>http://selenianboondocks.com/2006/12/vse-apathy-woes/comment-page-1/#comment-1725</link>
		<dc:creator>Kirk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Dec 2006 22:39:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://selenianboondocks.com/?p=331#comment-1725</guid>
		<description>The business case won&#039;t be space solar power.  When I was at Georgia Tech we ran loads of studies on Mankins&#039; space solar power stuff.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The really telling moment for me was when we assumed launch costs were zero--it still wouldn&#039;t close economically.  Zero launch cost eliminates any advantage of using lunar materials or asteroid materials.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I don&#039;t know how to make money in space, but I know it&#039;s not space solar power.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;(and we were assuming awesome performance for the SSP: 50% efficient solar arrays, no radiation degradation, $0.25/kWhr electrical power sold on the ground...still didn&#039;t close)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The business case won&#8217;t be space solar power.  When I was at Georgia Tech we ran loads of studies on Mankins&#8217; space solar power stuff.  </p>
<p>The really telling moment for me was when we assumed launch costs were zero&#8211;it still wouldn&#8217;t close economically.  Zero launch cost eliminates any advantage of using lunar materials or asteroid materials.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know how to make money in space, but I know it&#8217;s not space solar power.</p>
<p>(and we were assuming awesome performance for the SSP: 50% efficient solar arrays, no radiation degradation, $0.25/kWhr electrical power sold on the ground&#8230;still didn&#8217;t close)</p>
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